A “transformation seismograph” can give an early warning signal with small perturbations at the beginning, later some elements of the system start shaking, later strong vibrations occur in all areas of the system until tipping or transformation point (point of no return) is reached. In this discussion paper we explores this concept to detect and measure the transformation to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions. Abstract: This discussion paper sketches the idea of a “transformation seismograph” to detect the signs and measure the speed and magnitude of transformation to net-zero greenhouse gas...

In this edition of our annual NDC Survey we once again find optimism and confidence about progress made on Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) planning and implementation. Based on responses from 97 policy makers and experts across 92 countries, we discuss how updated NDCs show progress, how they are linked to long term strategies, and which persistent challenges remain. Our survey findings confirm that we have come a long way since the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, we cannot ignore the fact that progress is too slow, pledges are insufficient, and action is not convincing: not on...

In this Climate Policy publication, we show that the number and coverage of climate change mitigation policies have increased in the past twenty years, but important policy adoption gaps remain. Despite this increase, slow progress towards reducing global emissions and meeting the collective Paris climate goals calls for more comprehensive climate change mitigation policies. Filling policy adoption gaps presents a concrete strategy to improve sectoral, national and global climate policy. Main findings: The number and coverage of climate change mitigation policies have increased in the past...

This report by NewClimate Institute, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and FTSE Russell tracks climate mitigation efforts in 30 countries and regions. Our analysis shows that emissions trends remain far from the goals of the Paris Agreement in the period post-2020. Emissions in the 30 economies as a group are projected to increase on average by approximately 0.4% per year between 2021 and 2030. However, almost two thirds of the countries analysed will accelerate their efforts in the 2020s. Sectors remain a key entry point to accelerate emissions reductions in the...

Combatting the climate crisis requires us to rapidly transform the systems that propel our economy, including power generation, buildings, industry, transport, land use, and agriculture—as well as the immediate scale-up of technological carbon removal. But by how much? And how can decision-makers unlock the transformational change that is required? The State of Climate Action 2021 identifies 40 indicators across key sectors that must transform to address the climate crisis, and assesses how current trends will impact how much work remains to be done by 2030 and 2050 to deliver a zero-carbon...

This is the twelfth edition of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report. It assesses the gap between estimated future global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions if countries implement their climate mitigation pledges and the global emission levels from least-cost pathways that are aligned with achieving the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement. This difference between “where we are likely to be and where we need to be” has become known as the ‘emissions gap’. The report also examines further areas that are highly relevant for bridging the gap: updated NDCs and Net...

Financial institutions' current investments in gas reflect an underestimation of climate risks, including the extent to which gas value chain investments pose a threat to achieving 1.5°C. This report surveys these risks, outlining the need for much tighter restrictions on lending for all parts of the gas value chain. Key Findings: Rapid and far-reaching decarbonisation of the energy system is essential to achieving the objectives of the Paris Agreement. Of particular importance is the “critical decade” between 2020 and 2030, where emissions need to fall 7.6% every year. Committed emissions...

This report by NewClimate Institute, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) provides an overview of projected greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 26 major emitting countries and regions up to 2030 under currently implemented policies. The report shows that emissions are projected to remain above 2005 levels in most countries but concludes that 16 out of the 26 countries and regions analysed are on track or close to achieve the NDC targets they have previously set for themselves. Eight are on track to also meet their...

In this report, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) explores several sets of scenarios for the evolution of the passenger vehicle stock in China, in order to inform on emission reduction and electricity demand implications. Summary: China is currently the global leader in battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales annually, a position it has held since 2015 when it surpassed the US. The one positive policy priority in China’s COVID-19 recovery focused on transitioning the transport sector towards development of public transport systems and electrified transport. New energy vehicles (NEVs), which...

This study investigates the techno-economic potential of green hydrogen production in Mongolia, and its application in three hard-to-abate end-use sectors - namely heavy-duty transport in the mining sector, public transportation in Ulaanbaatar, and decentralised space heating and cooking. Based on the results, the GHG emission reduction potential is estimated, followed by an analysis on potential policy options for the introduction of green hydrogen in the Mongolian context. Main findings: Despite Mongolia’s rich renewable energy resources, some hard-to-abate sectors are technically...

The scoping study aims to support Kenya Power’s Decarbonise the Energy Mix Initiative that is included in the company’s Strategic Plan 2018-2023 by analysing potential challenges associated with power sector decarbonisation and suitable intervention options to overcome these challenges. Main findings: Kenya has one of the lowest carbon-intensive power systems in the region, mainly due to the high share of dispatchable renewable sources (primarily geothermal and hydro). Together with its abundance of renewable energy resources, such as wind and solar, this is one of the greatest assets to...

This study shows how transformative change can bring about sustainable development, prevent climate change from spiralling out of control and address the unavoidable consequences of climate change in a development-friendly manner. Main findings: In view of the multiple crises facing the world, unprecedented efforts are required to achieve resilient, climate-compatible and sustainable development on a global scale. Avoiding unmanageable climate change and managing its unavoidable impacts requires ambitious and coherent action towards the objectives of the Paris Agreement. In this context, the...

This article published in "Nature Climate Change" analyses the recent wave of national net zero targets showing that there is significant momentum which could bring the temperature limit of the Paris Agreement within reach. Summary: A total of 131 countries are discussing, have announced, or have adopted net zero targets, covering 72% of global emissions. National net zero emission targets could, if fully implemented, substantially lower projected temperature increase compared to currently implemented policies (2.9–3.2 °C) or pledges submitted to the Paris Agreement (2.4–2.9 °C). While being a...

In these briefings, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) introduces its new rating methodology, which now rates more elements than before – mitigation targets in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), policies and action, and climate finance. We’ve also added a methodology for assessing net zero targets. These briefings provides an overview of the development in climate action over the last year and illustrates the new CAT assessment of the countries we analyse, based on our updated method. Summary Code red: The new IPCC report on climate science has reinforced the absolute urgency of closing...

International environmental law principles are used to assess indicators of fair share emissions reductions and narrow the range of what is considered a fair share for individual countries. Main Findings: This article tests fairness justifications offered in 168 nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the 2015 Paris Agreement against the touchstone of principles of international environmental law. It finds that while many NDCs refer to elements and indicators that are backed by principles of international law in determining fair shares (sustainable development, special circumstances...