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One of the most fundamental questions surrounding the new Paris Agreement is whether countries’ proposals to reduce GHG emissions after 2020 are equally ambitious, considering differences in circumstances between countries. We review a variety of approaches to assess the ambition of the GHG emission reduction proposals by countries. The approaches are applied illustratively to the mitigation part of the post-2020 climate proposals (nationally determined contributions, or NDCs) by China, the EU, and the US. The analysis reveals several clear trends, even though the results differ per individual...

The Climate Action Tracker today spelt out ten important, short-term steps that key sectors need to take to help the world achieve the Paris Agreement’s 1.5˚C limit: All key sectors—energy generation, road transport, buildings, industry, forestry and land use, and commercial agriculture—have to begin major efforts to cut emissions by, latest, 2020. By 2025 they should have accelerated these efforts in order to reach globally aggregated zero carbon dioxide emissions by mid-century, and zero greenhouse gas emissions overall roughly in the 2060s. The CAT scientists warned that in today’s carbon...

This new report by NewClimate Institute, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) provides an overview of projected greenhouse gas emissions in 25 major emitting countries/regions up to 2030, taking into account the emission trajectories based on current policies and the implementation of intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) and nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Key findings of the current study: The degree to which countries/regions are likely to achieve their 2030 targets under current...

The objective of this seventh UNEP Emissions Gap Report is to provide an up-to-date scientific assessment of the global progress towards the emissions reductions required to be on track to meet the long-term goal of the UNFCCC. In particular, this year the report emphasizes the implications of the Paris Agreement’s strengthened goal of holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C, and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for immediate and longer-term mitigation action. The 2016 Emissions Gap Report addresses the...

The adoption of the Paris Agreement in December 2015 moved the world a step closer to avoiding dangerous climate change. The aggregated individual intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) are not yet sufficient to be consistent with the long-term goals of the agreement of ‘holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C’ and ‘pursuing efforts’ towards 1.5°C. However, the Paris Agreement gives hope that this inconsistency can be resolved. We find that many of the contributions are conservative and in some cases may be overachieved. We also find that the...

In light of the ambitious targets of the Paris Agreement, large potential for emission reductions exists in the corporate sector. An increasing number of companies are making commitments to contribute to the agreement’s long-term targets. The CDP Climate Change Report 2016, in collaboration with the We Mean Business coalition, presents carbon emissions and climate change mitigation data from a global sample of 1,089 companies. The first in an annual series, the report tracks companies’ progress on reducing greenhouse gas emissions in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement against this...

In this study, we have translated the global ambition of the Paris Agreement into concrete sectoral targets applicable to the Netherlands. This has been done by comparing projected pathways of climate-relevant indicators from various authoritative literature sources to what would be needed in order to be compatible with the Paris Agreement’s long-term goals. The Netherlands faces a steep road ahead if the economy is to develop in a way that is compatible with the Paris Agreement. While promising developments have taken place in certain sectors - i.e. in transport, where the country is a...

The long-term global climate goals of the Paris Agreement adopted by nearly 200 countries in December 2015, imply enhanced efforts for greenhouse gas emissions reductions in Germany. The phrasing of the long term goals of the Paris Agreement goes beyond prior political consensus. The objective is to limit the global increase in temperature to “well below 2°C” above pre-industrial levels, “pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C”, as well as to lower the net GHG emissions to zero in the second half of the century. The aim of this brief analysis is to translate the goals of the...

This paper provides an overview of options to assess mitigation commitments before Paris and beyond. This includes a review of current activities to assess individual INDCs as well as a discussion of some of the attributes and requirements such assessment needs to fulfil. The paper goes on to explore options of how the assessment could be carried out and linked to the UNFCCC process, followed by a discussion of methodological approaches to assess the ambition of mitigation contributions. In conclusion, it provides some recommendations on a feasible and realistic way forward drawing out...

This study compared recommendations for good practice climate change mitigation policies from various institutions with the current status of application of these policies by countries. In an initial attempt, a broad set of climate mitigation-related policies covering all sectors were analysed for the 30 major emitting countries that comprise 82% of global GHG emissions. The database that is the basis for this report is available at www.climatepolicydatabase.org .

This article assesses Japan’s carbon budgets up to 2100 in the global efforts to achieve the 2°C target under different effort-sharing approaches based on long-term GHG mitigation scenarios published in 13 studies. The article also presents exemplary emission trajectories for Japan to stay within the calculated Budget.