If governments don't strengthen their 2030 targets and fail to substantially increase climate action before 2030, limiting peak global warming to 1.5°C will very likely not be possible and would lead to a multi-decadal, high overshoot of this limit, the Climate Action Tracker said today.
The CAT released its "Guide to a good 2035 target" at the climate talks in Bonn, Germany today, setting out a detailed, four-point recipe of key elements governments need to include in their next round of climate targets (Nationally Determined Contributions or NDCs), to be submitted to the UNFCCC from November this year.
But the CAT warns that overall, 2030 targets are far from t 1.5˚C aligned and, of even more concern, governments are not implementing enough policies and actions to meet even those insufficient targets.
"It's time for governments to switch to emergency mode, now" says Maria Jose de Villafranca Casas of CAT partner organisation NewClimate Institute. "We have set out a guide for 2035 targets under four main categories: they must be ambitious, fair, with developed countries ramping up climate finance, and they need to be credible and transparent."
The CAT's guide identifies some of the potential roadblocks to success, including the need for governments to stop subsidising fossil fuels, and stop new fossil fuel production. There is also a need for transparency around targets where governments must clearly identify where they intend to rely on carbon sinks and offsets.
Climate Analytics CEO Bill Hare warned that the CAT projection of warming from current policies was still at 2.7˚C.
"Our warming projection hasn't changed since 2021. Governments appear to be flatlining on climate action, while all around them the world is in climate chaos, from heatwaves to floods and wildfires.
Keeping warming to the 1.5˚C limit is still possible, but only if governments take substantially more action by 2030, and if not I'm afraid we're looking at an overshoot of this limit, one that will be very difficult to come back from."
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