Our NewClimate Institute experts will be present in Belém throughout COP30, participating in events, releasing new publications and offering insights on the negotiations. Reach out to our experts on the ground: Prof. Dr. Niklas Höhne (all topics, 11–19 November), Ana Missirliu (mitigation by national governments, 12–18 November), Frauke Röser (sustainable development, climate finance, just energy transition, the big picture, 15–19 November), Juliette de Grandpré (Article 6 and carbon markets, 11–18 November).
COP30, the UN’s annual climate conference, will take place in Belém, Brazil, from 10–21 November 2025. It comes amid stark realities: 2024 was the hottest year on record and likely the first year in which global average temperatures exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. It takes place against a fractured geopolitical landscape, when international cooperation is needed more than ever to protect what has been achieved under the Paris Agreement.
Marking the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement, COP30 will be a test of whether the world can stay united behind the global climate agenda. Central to the discussions will be updated national climate goals, or Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), through 2035 and the push to turn them into concrete action. Alongside NDCs, leaders will grapple with mobilising climate finance, including for the Brazil-led important Tropical Forests Forever Facility, finalising the rules of Article 6 on carbon markets, advancing adaptation amid worsening climate impacts and driving a just global energy transition.
Our experts stress the urgency of accelerating action to stay as close as possible to a Paris-aligned pathway while ensuring just transitions – cutting emissions sharply, scaling up renewables, deploying new technologies like carbon removal responsibly, protecting carbon sinks and increasing climate finance to meet both decarbonisation and adaptation needs.
COP30 will be a crucial moment to show that most countries still believe in global cooperation and are committed to safeguarding the multilateral system over a world driven by survival of the fittest. The COP Presidency’s focus on implementation and people is critical – protecting what has been achieved, strengthening cooperation because climate action, if done right, will have positive impact on lives on the ground. – Prof. Dr. Niklas Höhne
This blog post rounds up some of the key topics to watch at COP30 and NewClimate Institute’s perspective on them, alongside an overview of our upcoming publications and side events:
- NDCs
- Sustainable development and just transitions
- Article 6
- Climate finance
NDCs
Ten years on since the Paris Agreement, where governments pledged to keep global temperature rise well below 2°C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C, the world remains far off track. According to our Climate Action Tracker, we estimate that current NDCs would lead to roughly 2.6-2.8°C of warming by 2100.
Importantly, the global 1.5°C goal remains in place as a vision to strive for – even though the path towards achieving it has changed. If the long-term global average temperature is breaching 1.5°C, we need to keep that overshoot as low and as short as possible.
Acting in line with the 1.5°C vision will require deep emissions cuts, net-zero emissions and long-term carbon removals. To guide these efforts, governments need to strengthen their 2030 targets and put forward robust 2035 targets, stressed NewClimate expert Ana Missirliu.
Progress in 2025 remains insufficient. As of 30 October, only 64 countries have officially submitted 2035 targets, covering around one-third of global emissions. Many large emitters have yet to formally submit their new pledge to the UNFCCC. Among those that have only announced targets, ambition remains limited. Notably, China’s announced 2035 target is unlikely to further drive down emissions, as the country is already set to achieve this target with the policies it has in place. Similarly, the EU’s pledge has not been submitted yet and is likely to fall short of the ambition needed, weakening the EU’s credibility as a climate leader. Other major emitters, including Australia and Japan, have presented weak targets, while many countries have yet to submit updated NDCs.
After the departure of the US, other major economies need to step up. Backtracking by the EU or weak pledges from China and Australia don’t just stall progress – they lower the ceiling for global ambition. – Ana Missirliu
Strong NDCs must be comprehensive, economy-wide and transparent. They should embed global commitments and initiatives made in previous COPs, such as scaling up renewable energy capacity, phasing out fossil fuels and reducing methane emissions across all sectors. Transparency is critical: land-sector targets should be reported separately to clearly distinguish actual emissions reductions from removals by forests and soils. This can help avoid creative accounting and prevent sinks from being used to mask weak action in other sectors. Likewise, countries must disclose how they intend to use Article 6 carbon market mechanisms, ensuring these tools deliver additional reductions and serve to raise ambition, rather than substituting for domestic action.
Side events co-hosted by NewClimate Institute:
- Side event: “State of play in new NDCs: Scientific insights, social justice and development implications” – 12 November, 16:00-17:00, German Pavilion
- Side event: “All hands on deck: opportunities for global cooperation” – Thursday, 20 November, 11:30-13:00, Side event room 3
Speaking engagements:
- Dr. Niklas Höhne speaking at side event: “Two sides of the same coin: The nature-climate nexus in global net zero commitments” – Saturday, 15 November, 11:30-13:00, Side event room 3
Publications and press conferences:
- Climate Action Tracker (CAT) Global Update, multiple country assessments and NDC analysis
- Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI) 2026
- Report: Progress of major emitters towards climate targets – out on 07 November!
- Report: UNEP Emissions Gap Report – out on 04 November!
Sustainable development & just transitions
The sustainable development agenda is the overarching focus of the COP30 Presidency – and for good reason. Climate action and sustainable development are deeply interconnected: achieving global development goals depends on limiting global warming to safe levels, while ensuring that transitions to low-carbon economies are just and inclusive is key to sustaining progress. Putting people and their livelihoods at the centre of climate action will be vital to build trust and maintain the political momentum needed to raise ambition.
Amid rising geopolitical uncertainty and intensifying trade tensions, the global energy landscape is undergoing profound transformation. Rapid population growth, urbanisation, industrialisation and the rise of artificial intelligence are driving a surge in energy demand worldwide. Meeting this demand while cutting emissions, strengthening energy security and keeping energy affordable has become an urgent priority.
There is a strong scientific consensus on the urgency of the energy transition, the technologies needed to deliver it and the long-term economic and environmental benefits it can bring across both the global North and South. Yet, even as the evidence base has grown clearer, political and financial support for international cooperation underpinning the transition appears to be faltering. Outdated narratives continue to sustain the fossil fuel system and slow the energy transition.
In Southeast Asia, for example, renewables – not imported fossil gas – will be key to a successful and just energy transition. Renewable hydrogen could play a crucial role in strengthening regional power systems by providing seasonal storage and meeting peaking demand, showing how solutions should be tailored to local contexts.
COP30 must be about breaking outdated narratives and putting people at the heart of climate action. Continuing to depend on fossil fuels risks falling into a mid-transition trap: short-term relief at the expense of long-term resilience, as resources are diverted away from renewables and structural vulnerabilities deepen. – Frauke Röser
The success of the global clean energy transition, among other factors, also hinges on building the workforce, capacity and quality green jobs to deliver it. But shortages of skilled workers threaten progress on emission reduction goals. Tripling global renewable power capacity by 2030 could require nearly quadrupling the power generation the workforce – from about 12 million to 47 million workers. Meeting this need will require a mix of new graduates, skilled migrants and workers transitioning from related sectors.
Trade, supply chains and critical minerals are also moving to the forefront of the sustainability agenda. Concentration of resources and geopolitical competition pose growing risks to secure, affordable and sustainable energy transitions. Strengthening cooperation and understanding the role and impact of trade in advancing climate and development goals will be crucial to ensure that transitions are both equitable and resilient.
Article 6
Article 6 of the Paris Agreement was designed to enhance climate action by enabling international cooperation. It includes two main mechanisms: cooperative approaches under Article 6.2, which is mostly a nation-to-nation trading mechanism, and the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism (PACM) under Article 6.4, which is expected to attract mostly the private sector.
In theory, Article 6.2 can help enhance ambition by enabling countries to cooperate on mitigation and invest in lower-cost emission reductions. In practice, countries retain significant flexibility in determining which mitigation outcomes they choose to trade and in setting the integrity standards required for those transactions.
For Article 6 to deliver on higher ambition, it is important that buyer countries do not delay domestic emissions cuts and that seller countries do not sell away mitigation outcomes that they may later need to meet their own targets. This would also raise equity concerns, as responsibility for emission reductions would shift from wealthier to less developed countries.
Early examples illustrate these risks. Switzerland’s 2035 target includes the use of international credits, potentially delaying domestic action. The EU has announced its intention to use Article 6 for its 2040 climate target – an approach that could weaken ambition if credits replace domestic cuts. Brazil has signalled plans to sell emission reductions abroad, which could undermine its ability to meet stronger future targets.
Another concern is the blurring of the line between climate finance and carbon finance. Finance generated through ITMO purchases should not be counted as climate finance, since these transactions primarily help the buying country meet its target. The selling country, in turn, must make corresponding adjustments that make achieving its goals more difficult and costly.
To support the objectives of the Paris Agreement, international cooperation under Article 6 must lead to real, additional, permanent and non-double-counted emission reductions that contribute to sustainable development. For that, countries should prioritise domestic mitigation first and use international credits only as a complement – not a substitute – for their own action.
Financial flows from developed to developing countries should prioritise supporting greater climate action in developing countries, fostering cooperation rather than serving primarily as a means for wealthier nations to meet their own targets. Carbon markets should complement, not replace, real domestic action and climate finance. – Juliette de Grandpré
Side events co-hosted by NewClimate Institute:
- Side event: “Communities in the driving seat: Carbon Markets safeguards and alternatives” – 11 November, 16:45-18:15, Side event room 6
Climate finance
Aligning financial flows with the Paris Agreement goals is crucial to enable the transition to a low-emission and climate resilient world. Climate finance, in particular, is essential to accelerate climate action and support the implementation of NDCs, particularly in developing countries. At COP29, countries agreed on a New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) for developed countries to take the lead in mobilising at least USD 300 billion per year by 2035, with efforts to scale up to USD 1.3 trillion a year from all sources over the same period.
To guide implementation, the Baku to Belém Finance Roadmap, jointly led by the COP29 and COP30 Presidencies, will be released ahead of COP30. While not legally binding or negotiated, it is intended to set out how the NCQG will be delivered in practice. However, negotiations on the NCQG revealed persistent divides over how the targets should be delivered: developing countries call for largely grant-based and concessional finance, while developed countries emphasise mobilisation from diverse sources of finance from a range of actors, including private sector and the use of market-based mechanisms.
Public finance should remain at the core of donor commitments, even as private finance plays a role in closing the climate finance gap, said NewClimate expert Imogen Outlaw.
Grants, concessional loans and non-debt instruments are crucial to ensure finance reaches vulnerable countries, supports adaptation and drives investment in emerging technologies and high-risk sectors. – Imogen Outlaw
Two priorities expected to feature prominently at COP30 are reforms to the global financial architecture and country platforms.
Multilateral development banks (MDBs) remain central to mobilising finance for the NCQG, but much of their support is loan-based and non-concessional, exacerbating debt burdens in already vulnerable countries. Calls are mounting for reforms to tackle unsustainable sovereign debt and expand access to grant-based and concessional finance aligned with climate and development objectives. It remains unclear if the Roadmap will outline such reforms and concrete steps to unlock the USD 1.3 trillion.
Country platforms are also emerging as mechanisms to mobilise and coordinate private and public investment in line with national priorities. Brazil launched its own platform – the Climate and Ecological Transformation Investment Platform – in 2024 and is expected to champion this approach at COP30. To be effective, country platforms should be genuinely country-led and combine grants, concessional finance and private capital. Greater collaboration between MDBs and regional or national development banks could help align and scale investment flows through these platforms.
