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In this briefing, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) estimates global warming by 2100 to be at an all-time low of 2.4°C. Due to recent climate action announcements at President Biden’s Leaders Summit on Climate, together with those announced since September 2020, have improved the CAT’s global warming estimate by 0.2°C. This emissions gap needs to be closed with further NDC target updates this year and targets have yet to be supported by ambitious policies. Leaders’ Summit on Climate creates new momentum on climate action Climate action announcements at US President Biden’s Leaders Summit on...

This scientific article in ‘Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews’ looks at climate change mitigation policies in five major emitting economies: China, the European Union, India, Japan and the United States. It analyses their performance in terms of energy system and greenhouse gas emissions indicators. The review centres on the sectors of electricity generation, passenger vehicles, freight transport, forestry, industry, buildings, agriculture, and oil and gas production. The article further presents an explorative emissions scenario developed under the assumption that all countries will...

The EU cement sector has made progress to reduce emissions in the past three decades, yet there is a long way ahead for the carbon-intensive industry to decarbonise. In this study, potential decarbonisation pathways are developed and analysed based on different highly innovative technology routes. Based on the results, challenges and opportunities related to specific technologies are identified, informing policy recommendations for the near-, mid- and long term. Main findings: The characteristics of the traditional cement production process, with its major part of emissions originating from...

This is the eleventh edition of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report. It assesses the gap between estimated future global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions if countries implement their climate mitigation pledges and the global emission levels from least-cost pathways that are aligned with achieving the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement. This difference between “where we are likely to be and where we need to be” has become known as the ‘emissions gap’. The report also examines two areas that are highly relevant for bridging the gap and which have become even...

The recent wave of net zero targets has put the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C within striking distance. In this briefing, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) has calculated that global warming by 2100 could be as low as 2.1°C as a result of all the net zero pledges announced as of November 2020. Included in our new modelling is the announcement by China in September 2020 that it intends to reach carbon neutrality before 2060, which reduces the CAT end of century warming estimate by 0.2 to 0.3°C alone. Assuming carbon neutrality in the USA by 2050, as proposed by President-Elect Biden, would reduce...

This report assesses the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated recovery measures on emissions out to 2030 and global emission pathways towards meeting the Paris climate goals (‘what-if’ scenarios). Furthermore, the study reviews the most recent insights published in the literature on post-COVID emissions projections and green recovery trajectories, and provide a framework for analysing the ‘greenness’ of recovery packages, using Germany as a case study. Main Findings: This report assesses the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated recovery measures on emissions out...

This guidance provides recommendations to policy makers on how to approach the development of a long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategy (LTS) given the unique circumstances of individual countries in 2020, and future revisions thereof. Summary for Policy Makers: Context Under the Paris Agreement, 198 Parties to the UNFCCC have collectively committed to hold global average temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C. The latest scientific evidence unambiguously shows the need to initiate...

NewClimate Institute together with GIZ provided support to the Mongolian NDC process between September 2018 and March 2020. This report provides a synthesis of the results of three years of supporting governmental and non-governmental constituencies with analytical support for the energy supply sector. At the core of the work were two strands. 1) Scenario analysis to support the understanding of the implication of the long term temperature goals of the Paris Agreement for the Mongolian electricity supply sector. 2) Analysis of socio-economic impacts of the energy transition, especially...

Ahead of the UN Climate Action Summit 2019, UNEP with support of NewClimate Institute has released an advance chapter of the flagship 2019 Emissions Gap Report, which notes that G20 members, who account for around 80 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions, are not yet taking on transformative climate commitments at the breadth and scale necessary. The chapter titled “Bridging the Gap: Enhancing Mitigation Ambition and Action at G20 Level and Globally” notes that “the majority of G20 countries are not yet taking on transformative climate commitments at the necessary scale—if this does not...

This study assesses the EU's 2050 target, i.e. halving global emissions by 2050 to be in line with 2°C, in today's setting to evaluate if the target, which was set ten years ago, is still appropriate and/or sufficient. It offers recommendations for the EU to aim for more ambitious targets. Key findings: The EU’s 2050 greenhouse gas reduction target of 80% to 95% from 1990 levels adopted 10 years ago is outdated as its basis has changed substantially. The global goal agreed in Paris in 2015 is more ambitious and pathways to that goal are now steeper not only because of the more ambitious goal...

This briefing paper introduces the Technology Needs Database (TND) compiled to support activities of the National Designated Entity (NDE) of Germany for technology transfer under the UNFCCC. The database captures technology needs identified by developing countries in Technology Needs Assessments (TNAs) and (intended) Nationally Determined Contributions ((i)NDCs) to achieve national climate goals in the areas of climate change mitigation and adaptation. Key findings Mitigation In the field of mitigation, the summary statistics reveal that technology needs are most frequently identified in the...

In light of the ambitious targets of the Paris Agreement, large potential for emission reductions exists in the corporate sector. An increasing number of companies are making commitments to contribute to the agreement’s long-term targets. The CDP Climate Change Report 2016, in collaboration with the We Mean Business coalition, presents carbon emissions and climate change mitigation data from a global sample of 1,089 companies. The first in an annual series, the report tracks companies’ progress on reducing greenhouse gas emissions in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement against this...